Bitcoin TA - summary of analysts - 12. June 18

in bitcoin •  2 months ago

Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.

**My summary - short-term sentiment: bearish ** (last: bloodbath )

- We are stabilizing around 6'700 level
  • Bearish scenario (preferred):

  • We broke down also the 7'050 which fuels the bearish scenario even more.

  • Next levels to watch are 6'600 (April 4th close) - 6'425( April 1st low) - 6'000 (Feb 5th los).

  • Bull scenario:
    Seems much more unlikely now - we need to see a significant rally up to confirm any momentum to the upside.

  • @haejin: He is posting bitcoin only on bitcoin live anymore. I am trying to reach out to him to see if we can have an abstract here.
  • Lets see how June plays out -usually also a bullish month. Are we going to see a compensation of May with a huge rally up?
    IMAGE 2018-04-08 20:14:56.jpg

News about the blog

  • I revised my tables. Now the sentiment is split in 4 sentiments. Sentiments are based on the candle charts timeframe. So 4hr charts, daily, weekly, monthly chart sentiments are up. I haven't gathered all information from all analysts yet but will do that over time. I hope you find that additional precision useful.

  • To let the steemit community about this I will use promoting bots for this post.

  • Bounty project website launched. Are you becoming a bounty hunter? Steem-bounty website.
    You find the How-To for creating a bounty at this post

Analysts key statements:

Tone:

  • Weekly: It is very similar to August 2018. He expects current candle the least volatile week. The biggest difference is the cross over of the MAs 7, 30, 50.
  • Daily: Is on 4 of 9. Tomorrow critical candle. He hopes us to see a 9 here. He expect this to be a continuation 9 though.
  • 12hr: We got a 9 (unperfected). We already started to pull up at the 7. Low was around 6'600. What we don't know if we go up to 7'000 before go down or if we already had the high yesterday at 6'900.

@haejin:

@haejin is moving his analysis to bitcoin live. Those of you who want to follow him directly should look into subscription. I will try to get in contact to see if I can use an abstract to post here also in the future.

Bitcoin's (BTC) decline yesterday can be counted as an impulse sequence where wave 3 took place. Since wave 3 moves the most violently, the vertical nature fits quite well. Much of today will likely be used to complete waves 4 and 5. This means a probable lower low. The decline could also pattern out a downward pointing wedge (purple).
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-12 um 09.29.54.png
The wide scoped view shows the ZigZag (5,3,5) sequence still in play and should be at its terminal end. White wave 5 could also temporarily pierce the lower trendline. However, it shouldn't be decisive. IF this pattern is correct, this should be the last ABC sequence.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-12 um 09.30.01.png
The longer term view shows the pattern that has been in play for the whole correction. The ABCDE count is correct with the E wave at the bottom trendline and not at the top. IF this is correct, then the bottom trendline needs to hold against any decisive breaching; though, it could temporarily be pierced.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-12 um 09.30.06.png

@ew-and-patterns:

-Emergency update from his holidays:
Not a triangle - it's an ABC. The break out suggests a drop to 3'300 is going to happen. The low is expected in early August! Next chart update on 14.6.

Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-07 um 15.09.38.png

He will be gone for holidays starting on the 07.06.18 until 14.06.18.

@lordoftruth:

Some Upside Bounce could happen here, but as all barriers were crushed, market probably will gravitate to 6'519, but as stops will be triggered, 4'267 could become a reality.

At press time, bitcoin is trading around 6'850 and the chances is valid to achieve more decline, as sellers continue with their drive towards major support at 4'267.

The 2 Weekly Bearish Stop Grabbers suggest drop below 6'519, to test 5'878 reaching 4'300 area, the same destination point of the above Butterfly "Buy". The potential bullish reversal location.

Todays trend is bearish. Trading between 6'200 and 7'150.

@philakonesteemit:

nonews.jpg
A bounce at the 7'000 level was much expected due to hitting a major trend line support established since Nov 11, 2017.
Bullish View, if we break the 7'650 range, there's a chance to hit 7'850 to 8'000 range (0.5 to 0.618 fib retracement)
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-01 um 11.10.48.png
Bearish View, if we break 7'161 range, we'll most likely test 7'040, which I see as failing to hold and then testing 6'500.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-01 um 11.10.58.png

@passion-ground:

200-pt trading range established post sell-off.
This short-term follow up sites a downside price target of 6427 to resolve the aforementioned 200-pt range.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-12 um 10.02.58.png

Summary of targets/support/resistance

Reference table

analystlatest content datelink to content for details
Tone Vays12. Junehere
@haejin12. Junehere
@ew-and-patterns11. Junehere
@lordoftruth12. Junehere
@philakonesteemit31. Mayhere
@passion-ground12. Junehere

Definition

  • light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
  • sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely). The sentiment is based on 4hr, daily, weekly, monthly candle charts.
  • target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
  • support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.

Further links for educational purposes:

*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.

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Everybody has his own opinion on the value of those TAs and that is good in my opinion. I think summarizing the TAs of those analysts helps traders make their opinion on which analysts has which strength and weaknesses (they all do have both). I think that saves the community time and adds value to steem.

As I wrote in my post the reason for promoting my post is that I changed structure of my content (which I am providing now for about 4 month on a daily basis without exception) and wanted to make that more visible. Spending money on bots is anyway a "minus" business as you probably know.

And I am flattered that you think me "promoting" this posts leads to a promotion of the analysts mentioned in it. But in reality those listed analysts have far more follower than I do - in fact probably all my follower coming from those analysts.

Flagging content which seems to bring value to the community - even if it contains information of people who are highly discussed ( btw. @haejin moved to bitcoin live so won't show up much in the future) - whom does that help? But of course you can use the mechanics of steem as it pleases you.

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Hi @berniesanders,

Please remove downvote from our post, we are supporters of your witness and also want to provide entertainment to the steemit community, please let us grow together ! Our betting games is designed to make sure everyone wins no matter what. Please consider removing the downvote

Thanks,
@betgames

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It’s quite unfortunate to see how you bash a new comer to steemit by abusing your power and 10+ accounts you got on steemit!!

Can’t argue more with rich and abusive people in power !

We hope you have a good day!

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Ah, you're one of those crybabies who pushes 3 posts to the top of Trending using a bunch of bots then whines when you get flagged, eh?

There will be MUCH more to come!

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We aren’t a great fan of bots, but there is no way to get your words out there without paying them , we hope somewhere down the line we do away with the bots!

And it’s okay if our vote is worthless, still we would support you for the work you do!

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And we will take every critics and make sure we improve, we know that you are one of the experienced steemit expert available on this platform, so it would be our pleasure if we get your support and we will make sure we never use bidding bots anymore in that case !

I work with historical Bitcoin trendlines and they tell me now is the ideal time to load your boat with some bitcoin, as the lower basic historical supportline is very close and bitcoinmining cost can't get much lower. If bitcoin falls below 6K and through this line, we will be in new uncharted territory and price could fall to 5K, 3K, 1K. So, my guess is UP!

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pagandance/now-is-a-good-time-to-buy-bitcoin

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Yea, bitcoin took another hit about an hour ago. It sort of feels like that old trader saying "Sell in May and go away" but it may not be seasonal, as seasonal trading has been evaluated and doesnt always hold true. The summer as shown in the chart above, as well as Chinese New Year do seem to be worth noting when you look at past performance. With all that said, the future is what matters and no one has a crystal ball.

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@heavybags no shit you know your stuff well. I just followed you sir.
Thanks for the comment it brings hope to me

I like the table with the btc prices since 2014, wonder if we can learn about it in the future

You got a 29.83% upvote from @postpromoter courtesy of @famunger!

Want to promote your posts too? Check out the Steem Bot Tracker website for more info. If you would like to support the development of @postpromoter and the bot tracker please vote for @yabapmatt for witness!

Gd job bro.That are very important details for us.Tnx for giving us.

Thanks @famunger. Everytime I try engaging with @haejin's post I have these evil bots waring with me. Why is that?

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What do you mean waring?

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They bring war on me, downvoting my comments..

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He means the Censorship Committee of SteemIt: a bunch of guys who have far too much money and free time... and decide for themselves what other users can share or not. They not only attack the users they dislike... but everyone commenting on those users' threads.

I honestly thought that 20st Century History has proved Censorship to be wrong... but apparently, Nazi Germany and USSR weren't enough, at least for some people.

Hey @famunger, phil posted the following on Twitter. FYI. Cheers

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Thank you for bringing that to my attention. I am monitoring him at the moment only on steemit but it seems I need to check for other sources as well.

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FYI @tradedevil gave us one more bullish count. If April's low get's broken any and all short-medium term bullishness should be off the table. 'Patience' is the name of the game.

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seems he's expecting BTC at $5k

You got a 56.62% upvote from @upme thanks to @famunger! Send at least 3 SBD or 3 STEEM to get upvote for next round. Delegate STEEM POWER and start earning 100% daily payouts ( no commission ).

Thanks for the headup

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@jacksonoskele are you from Nigeria? i am from Kenya.

In kenya most people thinks bitcoin is a pyramid scheem i hope soon they will understand how it works

It seems it's reverting today...

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i started following you

great post and thanks for the ta

I am already following you for quite some time. This is the first time I see you using bid bots. Is it really the first time?

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Second time actually. Just using them once in a while to extend reach so more steemit user can profit from this daily summary. It costs usually 10% and the new follower rarely paying back with significant votes. So it is just extending the reach of the post.

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Thanks for answering. I honestly wonder if it works to use bid bots? But answering that question is difficult. I guess this is one of the best solutions I've seen so far.

And the bitcoin TA Sunday is really awesome. I actually don't follow any of the TA authors. Your post just has it all!

Bitcoin it is a scam, steem a good technelogi

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I can see by your rank that you're new at this; so I want to offer you a tip! :

A product is only as good as its selling power....Steem is a buyer's economy....buy bots...'succeed'. So, you might want to rethink your 'scam' analogy. Whales buy the power; and, manipulate it according to their 'agenda'....btw...not hatin', just sayin'...

Peace.

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haha @spiritualmatters that was a good explanition

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Considering the number of scammers that I have seen do the 'poof be gone' strategy with tons of dinero, I think it's only right to give fair warning to newcomers on the block.

Many won't listen; and, will fall for the okie doke. Hopefully, they will look in the mirror and know they have themselves to blame.

This however, doesn't abscond the guilty from the consequences of their sins.

The Hindu and the Buddhist would warn: Karma has a strange way of tapping one on the shoulder when least expected.

The Christian in like form would advise one to repent, for God says:

**Do not take revenge,...but leave room for God's wrath, for it is written: "It is mine to avenge; I will repay," says the Lord (Romans 12:19).

Best regards.

Peace.

I'm looking forward to see this at the end of the year. Congratulations for the good job.

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me too i am waiting for the year's end too

If you are Steemit user? Join the partico Steemit Comunity on Discordapp server.
This is a contest going on in discord. You can win by participating in the contest. Then you get 5 sbd rewards. The expiration date of this contest is 48 hours.
So, joining the competition and participated in 5 sbd contest. And win 5 sbd...

I want to invest in Bitcoin

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this maybe the best time to but be smart and invest smart.

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thank you so much dear friend, wish you all the best

Great thank you

I think BTC will drop massively in the next days. Situation is similar to Gold 5 years ago in my opinion: https://steemit.com/money/@coinsultant/btc-usd-same-pattern-like-xau-usd-5-years-ago-will-history-repeat-again

I think we'll need to wait at least until December for a decent rally. Fact is, there are far too many panicked noobs trading Bitcoin. The more panicked minds, the longer we'll suffer.

Dear, I given you upvote and now i expect my Post's Two questions answer
if You are wise and honest man.
https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@siraj7742175/99-risk-in-crypto-invest-why-this

Good Info though doubtful how many will sustain to get swim out in this fall of bitcoin. Many invested at much much higher rate when it was at it's peak few months back. Hope it recovers sooner... Best luck investors

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I personally never bought BTC for investment. I usually invest on ICOs and sell in bitcoins

I really like the table till 2014 , but we need a table on predictions for future

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i really really dought any one can predict the future with all due respect. We can only hole for te best @facttechz

Thanks for the clarification. In the short term, it seems we continue to deal with bearish market .

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I am really crossing the fingers that we very soon start to see the bull run signals coming

Sorry but I think you are all wrong.
Since April the BTC difficulty factor has increased by more than 25%. Thus the cost of mining has increased by roughly the same – some overhead.

The miners will stop mining at that price and the BTC blockchain will grind to a halt if even 25% stop mining. You could have 4 to 10 hour random blocks. They won’t allow it fall that low it is too risky for the entire BTC chain. All BTC miners are now dependent on each other’s survival as the difficulty factor is too high to even lose 15 % of the mining pool. The miners have the money and coin to dictate price and they will raise and lower it to their benefit as long as they are able.
BTC mining uses more electricity than most countries use. BTC is now big business with big investors. They will no more let it die than they would Microsoft die. The price must stay above 5 k to keep all the miners mining. The difficulty factor is now too high to mine for under 5k and the electric cost must be paid as you go at the large farms and even more so in the small ones.
All of the miners know exactly what it cost to mine a block you guys think that you can find the bottom price with chart analysis but it has always been a cost analysis. The bottom is how much it cost to mine a block.
The miners have kept the price down to keep the number of miners down. If you watch the mining pool you will notice that when the price gets to low miners start dropping off. If the price goes up you automatically get more miners. So who benefits from 6666.66 USD? The big miners do. It keeps the little miners out. This whole bottom price thing is about mining not about charts. The price is absolutely controlled by the miners. They want the price to stay low while they stack coin. But stay high enough to pay the bills and overhead while keeping the public interested.
They bring the price down to these low levels to see how many miners they can kick out without hurting the blockchain block time.
If the price goes to high you have an immediate influx of new miners. That forces the old miners to buy more equipment or update old to keep the same percentage of blocks. The big miners want the price exactly where it is.

Block Times have already increased by 3% Since the drop in price occurred which means some miners switched to another coin or simply turned off their mining equipment.

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That is an interesting aspect. Thanks for bringing that up.

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As you can see they can lose only 7.5% more mining without having a noticeable effect on block time. Just before the price dip the next difficulty was at just over 10.68% increase

666666DaywithBtcchart.jpg

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interesting perspective. Not really in the know about how miners think/incenstives/pain points, so thanks. One q: you state $6666.66 as a sort of a "break even" for big miners. How did you come up with this number- based only from price chart? average of some sort? I'd assume mining costs vary greatly in different locations no? Thanks!

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No the breakeven point now is between 4-6k depending on where you are mining. But only the most efficient miners can make the 4k mark. Most are between 5 and 6k
Example electric where I'm at and facility for 27 s9 is 83.00 per day
So 83 * 30 = 2490. S9 electricity and cooling.
facility = 650 per month.
3140 per month total in the summer
i can mine about .0007 per miner
per day .0007 * 27 = .0189 per day * 30 = .567 per month
Revenue at 6k = .567 * 6000 = 3360
Now granted I use my space and some electricity for other purposes
So as you can see 6k is about where I start to lose money.
This dose not even include the cost of the miners.
If the price stays low for very long miners will shut down and investors will pull out and btc will have to fork and reset the difficulty. You will never mine all of the coin in the current difficulty with half or more of the miners off line.
Now I'm not in an ideal area but neither are about 20 - 30 % percent of the miners or more.
Some have it worse some have it better.

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The first indication the price is to low is a drop in network hash rate which we are seeing now.

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I'm sorry I didn't answer your 6666.66 question.
My thoughts on this.
It is all just conjecture but it bears out better than charts sometimes especially on the low.
Always, always, always, remember BTC was and still is controlled by the miners. They are the consensus voters. Without them there is simply no bitcoin. This is how it was setup. So if you don’t understand mining and you are heavily invested you are dealing with a half deck of cards. Buyer beware.
Remember BCH would now be bitcoin if it were not for the miners. Everyone else wanted BCH to become bitcoin but the miners didn’t allow it.
Now for the 6666.66.
It took an exstream amount of effort and money to set the daily low of gdax to 6666.66 and it was no accident.
If you are familiar with the exchanges you will note how the price between exchanges changes instantly between exchanges, even though the buy and sell orders are different, the price is consistent between exchanges with very rare exceptions.
Myself and others believe the price is somehow manipulated by the exchanges in collaboration with an unknown entity possibly miners.
I believe along with other miners, which I will never name, the 6666.66 was a signal to the other exchanges not to allow the price to go below the 6666.66 level for the day. So all of the exchanges had to have bots in place fixed at this same price or slightly above so as to buy or sell, which ever was needed, to hold the price above 6666.66 low on gdax. This way it would remain fixed for the day.
I personally think this was done to shut down the rise in new mining operations and lower the rate of difficulty increase for the blockchain. It was allowed to stand for one day to see what effect it would have on mining.
I also believe it did not have a dramatic enough effect, only about 3.5 %, and they will creep it down until they get the increase down to less than 5% . It is currently sitting at 6.40%
The excuse for the price drop would be the result of the CTFC inquiry into exchange records and this kind of action is exactly what the CTFC investigation will be focused on, the price between exchanges being more than coincident.

Exchanges are not supposed to be trading with themselves at all let alone using bots to fix prices hi or low. Because of this investigation it may have been the last chance the exchanges will get to do it but it will not stop the major players from manipulation. They simply will have to work harder. They have enough money and coin to control the low price in a low volume market.
The high however is a completely separate matter and depends on public sentiment and volume. However the whales can still try and trigger a sell off if it is beneficial and these sell offs seem to coincide with bad news like the CTFC investigation.
Keep in mind all of this is conjecture as there is no way to prove it. But I believe it does quack and the CTFC also believes it may be going on.

Whenever you see the difficulty rate start to increase more than 10% twice in a row keep a close eye on your bitcoin or altcoin positions because this can start the big players, miners, warring with each other especially in a weak market where 3000 or 4000 coins can have huge impact.

They can easily part with coins and given any good reason they will. Remember a 10% increase in difficulty is a 10% loss for them no matter what the price of bitcoin is, unless they caused the increase in difficulty themselves. They are the ones loosing 10% so if they can stop it they will. If they can slow it down they will. This is why it is called the game.
You have to have stake in the game to play. Miners have the stakes in BTC, period. Everyone else is a spectator. No matter how much you paid to get in you have no say in the game because you have no mining power.

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@johnfdoe Thanks for that analysis. Just upvoted your comment and will follow you back

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"The bottom is how much it cost to mine a block."- wow, very good explanation. Probably explains the behaviour of miners to a t. But are they really the primary variable involved. Not sure about that.

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Fundamental analysis matter more than Technical ones when it comes to price volatility of Bitcoin. A big good news can take BTC price to 20K$ as it did in Jan-2018

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I apologize if you misunderstood me we were only talking about the bottom price not the top.

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The best comment in the list thank you

Congratulations for the good job.
I am looking for entrance this month

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@Goldcrol goodluck to you in the venture. it is a good investment if all goes well

Whatever the cause, whoever owns the script is not a problem for us, because for us the rise of bitcoin price to the highest level is a dream, because we are steemian beginners (minnows) only expect bitcoin price movement will also increase the selling price of SBD and Steem, that's all

hey @famunger i like your content and your analysis.
I write a monthly analysis on my steemit account.
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@alts.digger/bitcoin-and-market-analysis-june-2018
i hope you enjoy it.

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I will be following you to see these monthly analysis @alts.digger
Give me a follow as well

Flagged for trashing the TRENDING Page

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I am new in Steemit. 2 days old.

I am happy to see an Estonian. i love your country. could not believe the population in it when i read about it years ago.

I will follow you

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you are quite right. I also agree with you..

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This is more than a blood bath.

good a system. i search a system but today fund it.....thank you boss.i share you.

I have been saying this for weeks and now EVERYONE wants to be on the bearish train....still looking for bounces lol.

We are going to the Feb lows and lower and it is likely to happen in one quick swift kick in the nuts to all crypto holders when it does. What happens there is what matters

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@heyimsnuffles/crypto-carnage-is-imminent-20180610t190128430z-post

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But no one claim to really know what the future of Bitcoin is for if we know then everybody would know when to buy, hold or sell.
You are also speculating. for me i just hope that the price goes up

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I have been telling everyone whatvis going to happen for the past few months and it has taken longer than i thought but certainly has gone to Plan. Bitcoin trades very technical and there were multiple signal that said buying for the last 6 months was just asking for a loser.

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haha! i agree but you were speculating on this too. No one can really say what will happen in the blockchain.

@famunger i resteemed this one haha.
Hope you can give me a follow so i can get to see your other posts often

hello vote for your post I really like it

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i upvoted because i think you are a new steaminian like my self. I will support you and hopefully i get same back

You have recieved a free upvote from minnowpond, Send 0.1 -> 2 SBD with your post url as the memo to recieve an upvote from up to 100 accounts!

Interesting article. I subscribed to you. Subscribe to me. Let's be friends

Bitcoin continues to do whatever it wants hey

very good notes, hopefully soon the bitcoin returns its upward path, in my blog I will be giving free signals if you want to go to see them, thanks for your contribution

how built these all charts?

Bitcoins can be used to buy merchandise anonymously. In addition, international payments are easy and cheap because bitcoins are not tied to any country or subject to regulation. Small businesses may like them because there are no credit card fees. Some people just buy bitcoins as an investment, hoping that they’ll go up in value.
Considered and rejected!!your witness vote is 100% worthless.

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follow me and i have upvoted you sir.
All the best

HERMOSO INFORME...

It's totally bloody hell

bitcoin is a financial pyramid

Wow! deep everywhere! This is one of the best time to buy more steem power when the market is so low! I think we should take this opportunity guys!

The prices are simply not moving up

My advice to you:
Do not listen to TA they are 9 out of 10 times WRONG.

gazua~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Very good article with a lot of value information. Let´s hope that the bulls come back soon. Or should I buy more at the dip? I have some Fiat available. I just don´t know if to buy now or should I wait for the 6.000 level. Resteemed.

Interesting article. I subscribed to you. Subscribe to me. Let's be friends

Congratulations @famunger!
Your post was mentioned in the Steemit Hit Parade in the following category:

  • Pending payout - Ranked 2 with $ 579,93

BTC network up date.

As you can see now the difficulty rate increase has now dropped down to 5.7% so they may allow the price to rise as soon as it hits 5% which is the usual case in these circumstances.

Be aware it may stay down for the next 6 days which is the time to the next increase in difficulty.

I doubt they will go for a negative increase, it makes it too obvious, but it is possible. If they shoot for a 0% or slightly negative increase BTC would have to be around 6k or a little below.
See above comments for details

the increase in difficulty is Down from 10.68 to 5.7 since the major price drop a few days ago.

But what do I know I'm just another miner the price drop couldn't possibly have any thing to do with warring miners.
After all its just a game.
It would be interesting if some super whale would try and raise the price.
I would love to see how far they would go to keep it down.

btcnetupdate.jpg

aaaaaannnnddddddd it's gone

Yes it is